BIA/Kelsey Forecasts U.S. Local Advertising Revenues to Reach $144.9B in 2014

BIA/Kelsey Forecasts U.S. Local Advertising Revenues to Reach $144.9B in 2014

Following declines through 2011, BIA/Kelsey expects a rebound in local media spending beginning in 2012

CHANTILLY, Va., Feb. 22 /PRNewswire/ -- In its U.S. Local Media Annual Forecast (2009-2014), BIA/Kelsey forecasts the U.S. local advertising market to reach $144.9 billion in 2014, representing a modest compound annual growth rate of 2.2 percent from 2009. A closer look at the forecast period reveals, following a significant contraction in 2009, local media spending is expected to be slow through 2011, with meaningful recovery beginning in 2012.

"The general economic conditions worsened during 2009 causing advertising dollars to remain on the sidelines as businesses -- large and small, local, regional and national -- reined in spending levels," said Neal Polachek, president, BIA/Kelsey. "Even with improvements in the overall economy, we do not anticipate a rapid recovery among traditional media over the forecast period, because we believe the structural change in the local media industry has accelerated."

Indeed, a steady shift toward digital media continues. BIA/Kelsey forecasts spending on traditional media to decline from $115 billion in 2009 to $108.2 billion in 2014 (CAGR of -1.2 percent). During the same period, spending on online/interactive media is projected to grow from $15.2 billion to $36.7 billion (CAGR of 19.3 percent).

BIA/Kelsey reports among the key drivers of this year's forecast are:

-- Larger than previously forecast declines in newspapers and direct mail
-- Slowing growth of the interactive/online sector, including search,
display and classifieds
-- A further ramp-up in political advertising, due to the recent U.S.
Supreme Court decision, which will benefit the traditional television
and radio sectors, as well as the interactive and direct mail sectors

More Than Half of All Ad Spending Is 'Local'

The forecast reveals 55 percent of all ad spending is with local media, defined in this forecast as spending by small and medium-sized businesses and national advertisers or regional advertisers making local buys. In 2009 total U.S. ad spending was $235.6 billion (based on BIA/Kelsey's estimate of the local segment and estimates by several market forecasters focused on national spending). Of that, BIA/Kelsey estimates $130.2 billion was spent on local ad buys, with $105.4 billion attributed to national advertising.

BIA/Kelsey's Annual U.S. Local Media Forecast -- The Big Picture on 'Local'

BIA/Kelsey's Annual U.S. Local Media Forecast presents one comprehensive and authoritative view of the local media landscape. The forecast draws from proprietary data; company, industry and country information in the public domain; and discussions with clients and non-clients about the direction and pace of development in the local media marketplace.

The forecast, including deep dives into various sectors, is provided to clients of the firm's Continuous Advisory Services, as an independent, objective and credible five-year market outlook, offering a view into the key drivers and assumptions behind the top-line numbers. The forecast also serves as the foundation for BIA/Kelsey's Media Ad View reports (www.bia.com/mediaadview), market-specific reports that provide a comprehensive picture of the state of local media advertising and a five-year projection for 12 media categories in 362 markets across the nation. For information on BIA/Kelsey's Continuous Advisory Services and Media Ad View, please contact Michael Taylor at mtaylor@kelseygroup.com.

About BIA/Kelsey

BIA/Kelsey advises companies in the local media space through consulting and valuation services, research, Continuous Advisory Services and conferences. Since 1983 BIA/Kelsey has been a resource to the media, mobile advertising, telecommunications, Yellow Pages and electronic directory markets, as well as to government agencies, law firms and investment companies looking to understand trends and revenue drivers. BIA/Kelsey's annual conferences draw executives from across industries seeking expert guidance on how companies are finding innovative ways to grow. Additional information is available at www.bia.com and www.kelseygroup.com. The company's blogs are located at http://blog.bia.com/bia/ and http://blog.kelseygroup.com/, and it can be found on Twitter through http://twitter.com/BIAKelsey.

Source: BIA/Kelsey

CONTACT: Eileen Pacheco for BIA/Kelsey, +1-781-556-1026,
eileen@tango-group.com; or MacKenzie Lovings for BIA/Kelsey, +1-703-818-2425,
mlovings@bia.com; or Robert Udowitz for BIA/Kelsey, +1-703-621-8060,
rudowitz@bia.com

Web Site: http://www.kelseygroup.com/

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