Modest Decline in Support for Bush's Iraq Policies

Modest Decline in Support for Bush's Iraq Policies For the first time a plurality of U.S. adults believes that invading Iraq was the wrong thing to do ROCHESTER, N.Y., Jan. 20 /PRNewswire/ -- In the run up to the January 30th Iraqi elections, a new Harris Poll finds that U.S. public support for President Bush's policies in Iraq have eroded somewhat since December. The President's ratings on handling Iraq have slipped modestly from 57 percent negative to 59 percent negative. Those who are confident that U.S. policies in Iraq will be successful have dropped from 29 to 25 percent. Those who believe that taking military action in Iraq was the right thing to do are down from 43 to 39 percent, and those who believe that the situation for U.S. troops in Iraq is getting worse have increased from 50 to 53 percent. These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 2,209 U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive(R) between January 11 and 16, 2005. Specifically, the new survey finds that: * President Bush's 59 percent negative rating on his handling of Iraq compares with 46 percent negative a year ago, 49 percent negative last March and 57 percent negative in December. However, it is not significantly higher than his 58 percent negative rating in June, July and September 2004, in the run up to his re-election. * The 56 percent of the public who are not confident that U.S. policies in Iraq will be successful compares with 45 percent a year ago, 52 percent in April and 51 percent in December. It is the highest number not confident since Harris Interactive first asked the question in September 2003. * A 46 to 39 percent plurality now believes that invading Iraq was the wrong thing to do. This is the first time that a plurality has felt this way. In December, opinion was split 43 to 43 percent and the country was almost equally divided on this key question from June 2004 until December. * A 53 to 13 percent majority believes that the situation for U.S. troops in Iraq is getting worse. While this is more negative than the 50 to 18 percent who felt this way in December it is not as bad as it was in April and May of 2004. TABLE 1 RATING OF PRESIDENT BUSH - HANDLING OF IRAQ "Overall, how would you rate the job President Bush has done in handling the issue of Iraq over the last several months?" Base: All Adults 2003 Mar. April May July Sept. Nov. % % % % % % Positive (NET) 56 67 63 49 47 41 Excellent 29 38 34 21 16 15 Pretty good 27 29 28 29 31 26 Negative (NET) 43 32 36 50 51 58 Only fair 16 15 18 22 19 19 Poor 27 17 18 28 32 38 Not sure 1 1 1 1 2 1 2004 2005 Jan. Mar. April May June July Sept. Dec. Jan. % % % % % % % % % Positive (NET) 51 49 43 42 41 39 41 42 39 Excellent 20 18 15 13 13 15 14 12 13 Pretty good 31 31 29 29 27 24 27 30 26 Negative (NET) 46 49 55 56 58 58 58 57 59 Only fair 20 19 18 18 19 17 17 19 17 Poor 26 30 37 39 39 40 41 37 42 Not sure 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding. TABLE 2 CONFIDENT THAT U.S. POLICIES WILL BE SUCCESSFUL "How confident are you that U.S. policies in Iraq will be successful?" Base: All Adults 2003 2004 Sept. Nov. Jan. Feb. March April % % % % % % Confident 27 25 31 31 31 26 Not confident 46 51 45 48 46 52 Not sure 27 24 24 22 22 22 2004 2005 May June July Sept. Dec. Jan. % % % % % % Confident 25 25 26 29 29 25 Not confident 55 53 51 54 51 56 Not sure 20 22 23 18 20 19 Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding. TABLE 3 WAS MILITARY ACTION THE RIGHT THING TO DO? "Thinking about everything that has happened, do you think that taking military action against Iraq was the right or wrong thing to do?" Base: All Adults 2003 2004 Sept. Nov. Jan. Feb. March April % % % % % % Right thing 55 49 55 52 51 49 Wrong thing 32 37 31 34 33 37 Not sure 13 13 15 14 16 14 2004 2005 May June July Sept. Dec. Jan. % % % % % % Right thing 47 44 43 43 43 39 Wrong thing 38 42 42 43 43 46 Not sure 14 14 15 13 14 15 Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding. TABLE 4 IS SITUATION FOR U.S. TROOPS GETTING BETTER OR WORSE "Do you think that the situation for U.S. troops in Iraq is . . .?" Base: All Adults 2004 2005 Jan. Feb. March April May June July Sept. Dec. Jan. % % % % % % % % % % Getting better 24 22 24 9 11 19 18 15 18 13 Getting worse 36 38 38 64 65 49 45 54 50 53 No real change 31 31 30 20 19 26 30 26 25 28 Not sure 8 9 8 6 5 6 7 6 6 6 Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Methodology The Harris Poll(R) was conducted online within the United States between January 11 and 16, 2005 among a nationwide cross section of 2,209 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online. In theory, with probability samples of this size, one could say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non- response), question wording and question order, and weighting. It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. This online sample is not a probability sample. These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. J23069 Q601, Q610, Q615, Q625 About Harris Interactive(R) Harris Interactive Inc. (http://www.harrisinteractive.com/), the 15th largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the world, is a Rochester, N.Y.-based global research company that blends premier strategic consulting with innovative and efficient methods of investigation, analysis and application. Known for The Harris Poll(R) and for pioneering Internet-based research methods, Harris Interactive conducts proprietary and public research to help its clients achieve clear, material and enduring results. Harris Interactive combines its intellectual capital, databases and technology to advance market leadership through U.S. offices and wholly owned subsidiaries: London-based HI Europe (http://www.hieurope.com/), Paris-based Novatris (http://www.novatris.com/), Tokyo-based Harris Interactive Japan, through newly acquired WirthlinWorldwide (http://www.wirthlinworldwide.com/), a Reston, Virginia-based research and consultancy firm ranked 25th largest in the world, and through an independent global network of affiliate market research companies. EOE M/F/D/V. To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be invited to participate in future online surveys, visit http://www.harrispollonline.com/. Press Contacts: Nancy Wong Harris Interactive 585-214-7316 Kelly Gullo Harris Interactive 585-214-7172 Source: Harris Interactive Inc. CONTACT: Nancy Wong, +1-585-214-7316, or Kelly Gullo, +1-585-214-7172, both of Harris Interactive Web site: http://www.hieurope.com/ http://www.novatris.com/ http://www.wirthlinworldwide.com/ http://www.harrispollonline.com/ http://www.harrisinteractive.com/ ------- Profile: International Entertainment